Back on Track

One of the things that happens when recessions start is that economic data tends to understate what is happening. Specifically, at the start of a recession you tend to get unemployment numbers that indicate that the job market is getting bad and that GDP is contracting. As time goes on and the recession begins to really develop the earlier figures that showed poor growth are revised and it is clear that the economy was worse that we had thought at the time the first poor numbers were being released. This is because so many of the economic numbers are adjusted for so many things that in turn are dependent on so many other things ( the GDP number is adjusted for inventories and exports for instance, and those numbers in turn are adjusted by other statistics) that is a wonder sometimes that the numbers can tell us anything at all. Besides the economic statistics understating the start of a recession, those same number tend to underestimate the start of an expansion, with the GDP for the early months of an expansion often being revised later to be significantly higher. With the stock market back to its pre recession high (one of the most accurate of the leading indicators) we are probably already well in to a significant economic expansion. We should be happy about how our philatelic assets weathered the Great Recession.  True prices haven’t risen much but compared to the housing market your stamps look very good and as more baby boomers resume the hobby of their youth stamps should continue to be a very popular hobby.

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